Tanzania eyes trade potential if DRC-M23 deal can bring peace to region

The surrender of the March 23rd Movement (M23) rebels in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which Tanzanian troops helped bring about as part of a United Nations Intervention Brigade, has the potential to usher in peace and economic growth for the entire Great Lakes region.

• Tanzanian members of the UN Intervention Brigade appear in this photo taken November 2nd in Kiwanja, Democratic Republic of the Congo. [Sy Koumbo Singa Gali/MONUSCO]
• 
  M23 rebels sit in the back of a lorry as they wait to withdraw from Goma, Democratic Republic of the Congo, on December 1, 2012. After an 18-month insurgency, the rebel group surrendered to authorities in Uganda on November 7, 2013. [Phil Moore/AFP]

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But the relationship between M23 and the DRC government remains tenuous as the two sides failed to sign a much anticipated peace deal November 11th, after Kinshasa demanded the agreement be revised.

Uganda, which is hosting and mediating the talks, said it was expecting new rounds of talks but gave no set date.

If the peace deal goes through, it would be a catalyst for security for all Great Lakes countries and it would open a window for regional trade and commerce, Tanzania's Minister of Defence and National Service Shamsi Vuai Nahodha told Sabahi.

"Since the date of our independence it has been our policy that Tanzania cannot be fully free while her neighbours are in a state of insecurity," he said. "After all, if you do not fight a thug while [he] is in your neighbour's house, once that thug finishes off the neighbour, [he] will turn to you. Therefore, it is our candid role to make sure we contain them there."

Tanzanian soldiers deployed to eastern DRC in May, comprising more than one-third of the 3,069-strong United Nations Force Intervention Brigade that helped the DRC army defeat the rebels. Tanzanian Brigadier General James Aloisi Mwakibolwa led the force, which also comprised units from Malawi and South Africa.

Mobhare Matinyi, who lectures on conflict resolution at the Centre for Foreign Relations in Dar es Salaam, commended the work of the intervention brigade in dismantling M23, but cautioned that a stall in the peace agreement could unravel the gains.

"The danger of not concluding the agreement is obvious. They [M23] may regroup to start insurgent groups," Matinyi told Sabahi. "But on the other hand, by signing, the government will be assured of M23's commitment to refrain completely from waging war against this government."

Once the agreement is inked, M23 will not be able to regroup "because Rwanda and Uganda, who for quite a long time have been accused of supporting them, have decided to abandon them," Matinyi said. "Even the pressure from the international community is too high for Rwanda and Uganda to continue supporting M23."

"After attaining peace in DRC, then Tanzania can practice her policy of economic diplomacy through trading with DRC," Matinyi said. "For the last 20 years, war has killed trade between Tanzania and DRC, and now the opportunity has come back."

What to do with surrendered rebels

A key outstanding issue, however, is the fate of the M23 fighters who have crossed into Uganda and whom Ugandan government has refused to hand over to the DRC. Around 100 more injured rebels have crossed into Rwanda.

The DRC needs a plan to disarm, demobilise and reintegrate (DDR) the ex-rebels, the UN Secretary General's Deputy Special Representative for the DRC Abdallah Wahi told reporters November 13th.

The so-called DDR programmes are designed to disband ex-rebel groups, strip them of their weapons and find ways of reinserting them in civilian life.

"I would like to emphasise the need for the DRC authorities to have a DDR plan... that benefits all the components of armed groups. Long-term peace and security cannot be guaranteed in the Kivus (eastern provinces) without it," he said.

Meanwhile, M23 leader Sultani Makenga has been placed under military protection at a safe house in Kampala. Makenga is accused of masterminding killings, abductions, using rape as a weapon of war and recruiting child soldiers, and is on both UN and US sanctions lists.

According to Ugandan defence spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Paddy Ankunda, the fighters who fled with Makenga had been moved to a new site at Kasese in western Uganda and close to the DRC border.

"We have under our protection 1,320 fighters of the M23," Ankunda told AFP Tuesday (November 19th), adding that rebel commanders were also in the camp. "These were fighters, they had guns but we disarmed them."

Head of MONUSCO, the UN peacekeeping mission in the DRC, Martin Kobler did not confirm the number of ex-rebels in Uganda, but said his forces are preparing DDR camps.

"The numbers are not very clear. Right now we will prepare DDR camps... for 1,400 but we need to have a sorting process," he said, warning there could be refugees among them.

Kinshasa had said earlier the rebels would be dealt with "case by case", with many rank-and-file fighters expected to be given the option to return to the Congolese army.

But Matinyi, of the Centre for Foreign Relations in Dar es Salaam, cautioned against this move.

"In the past, rebels were integrated into the national army but within a short time they defected back to the forests," he told Sabahi. "Secondly, when they get integrated into the army they will [have] access [to] state secrets and possibly could steal ammunition from the army."

"Third, and lastly, these guys have done a lot of injustice to the Congolese, hence they have to face justice in the court of law," he said.

M23 one of many rebel groups

Nonetheless, it is important to remember that despite M23's defeat, the rebel group is just one of at least a dozen insurgency groups in the DRC and the country's long conflict is not necessarily over, said Richard Mgamba, editor of The Citizen newspaper, who has reported on the war there.

"Ask yourself why all insurgent groups restrict themselves to eastern Congo?" Mgamba said, listing at least six rebel groups including the Lord's Resistance Army and the Mai Mai militia. "The answer is very simple, they root resources. There are minerals there, timber and all sorts of resources which are gathered and sold abroad."

The fact that the market and competition for those strategic resources still exists is part of the equation of whether the DRC can ever have lasting peace, he said.

Because the DRC is one of Africa's richest countries in terms of natural resources, it needs the international community's support so that it is not plundered to the detriment of its citizens, Mgamba said.

Tanzania also could play a part in solving another of DRC's challenges, Mgamba said.

"To be realistic, DRC has no army. I think this is where Tanzania should take a leadership role to train DRC troops," he said. "You cannot have an army where generals are selling guns to the rebels. This army needs serious training, otherwise [the country's] problems will never end.

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